Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Three Yards & A Cloud Of Dust.......

After last night's third and final presidential debate in Boca Raton, where Mitt Romney took a beating from Barack Obama, there are only two weeks left before most of us go the polls.   This will be a squeaker but barring any unforeseen circumstances I think the President has a fundamental advantage.

This country has been extremely polarized since the 2000 election and this basic red-blue split played itself out in 2004 and in 2008 (with Obama overperforming due to some very favorable tailwinds).  As it stands now I think Obama takes 290 electoral votes to Romney's 248--essentially what happened in 2004 in reverse.  

FL. (04...Bush 52.1.....08 Obama 50.9) Romney leads +2.1
OH (04...Bush 50.8.....08 Obama 51.4) Obama   leads +2.1
NC (04...Bush 56........08 Obama 49.7) Romney leads +5.6
VA (04...Bush 53.7.....08 Obama 52.6)  Tied
WI  (04...Kerry 50.......08 Obama 56.2) Obama leads +2.8
CO (04...Bush 51.7....08 Obama 52.8) Romney leads +0.2
IA   (04...Bush 50.1....08 Obama 53.9) Obama leads +2.4
NV (04...Bush 51.......08 Obama 55.2) Obama leads  +3

As it stands now, I think Obama holds Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Ohio for those 290 electoral votes.  I think that is where you will see an all-out push with candidate appearances and ads.  Florida and Virgina will see saturation tv commercials to see if they move blue, but the emphasis will be on the midwest which has been more solidly blue in the past few elections with little deviation.  The addition of Colorado will provide an extra safety valve in case Wisconsin goes red due to native son Ryan.

The phrase "three yards and a cloud of dust" was a phrase that was used to describe the offense of legendary college football coach Woody Hayes' teams.  His offense was a conservative, methodical ground game that would march down the field.  Sounds like the Obama campaign.  And where was Coach Hayes a legend?  Ohio State of course.  

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